NHL Tavares Projections - 20 Games to Play

On June 26, the team picking first in the 2009 NHL Entry Draft will likely select John Tavares. While every team that misses the playoffs participates in the lottery to determine its selection order, only the bottom five are eligible for the number one pick.

The chart below extrapolates final standings projections based on each tanking team's winning percentage over 62 games and the past 10 games.

62 Game Pace vs. 10 Game Pace
30. NYI: 60'''''''''''''''''''''30. NYI: 61
29. ATL: 66'''''''''''''''''''''29. TBL: 66
28. TBL: 69'''''''''''''''''''''28. ATL: 68
27. OTT: 74'''''''''''''''''''''27. COL: 69
26. COL: 75'''''''''''''''''''''26. PHO: 71
_________________________
25. PHO: 78'''''''''''''''''''25. LAK: 73
24. TOR: 79''''''''''''''''''''24. OTT: 76
23. LAK: 81''''''''''''''''''''23. DAL: 77
22. STL: 85'''''''''''''''''''''22. ANA: 85
21. NSH: 85''''''''''''''''''''21. TOR: 86

Another wrinkle in landing the big prize is one's chances increase the worse one finishes. The 30th place team has a 48.2% chance of capturing the first overall pick, with the odds decreasing significantly from there (29th=18.8%, 28th=14.2%, 27th=10.7%, 26th=8.1%).

The moral of the story is every loss counts. NYI has been consistently catastrophic all year and TBL (-3), COL (-6), PHO (-7), and LAK (-8) are trending down nicely. ATL (+2), OTT (+2), and TOR (+7), on the other hand, are going the wrong way.

Buckle up! With 20 games to play, the race is on.