Eight teams took a 3-1 series lead in their best-of-seven series in the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Seven teams advanced (Carolina [2], Florida, Toronto, Vegas [3]) and one went home (Boston). While a 3-1 lead is always a good thing, it's never a sure thing.Through 2023, teams have trailed 3-1 in a best-of-seven series 333 times. Only 32 times has the trailing team comeback to win the series. Put another way, the team with a 3-1 series lead wins 90% of the time with the down-and-nearly-out team recovering only 10% of the time.
The chart below describes all 32 comebacks by year, team and round.
| Year | Matchup | Round |
| 1942 | Toronto over Detroit | Final |
| 1975 | New York* over Pittsburgh | Preliminary |
| 1987 | New York* over Washington | Preliminary |
| Detroit over Toronto | Quarterfinal | |
| 1988 | Washington over Philadelphia | Quarterfinal |
| 1989 | Los Angeles over Edmonton | Preliminary |
| 1990 | Edmonton over Winnipeg | Preliminary |
| 1991 | St. Louis over Detroit | Preliminary |
| 1992 | Detroit over Minnesota^ | Preliminary |
| Vancouver over Winnipeg | Preliminary | |
| Pittsburgh over Washington | Preliminary | |
| 1994 | Vancouver over Calgary | Preliminary |
| 1995 | Pittsburgh over Washington | Preliminary |
| 1998 | Edmonton over Colorado | Preliminary |
| 1999 | St. Louis over Phoenix | Preliminary |
| 2000 | New Jersey over Philadelphia | Semifinal |
| 2003 | Minnesota^^ over Colorado | Preliminary |
| Vancouver over St. Louis | Preliminary | |
| Minnesota^^ over Vancouver | Quarterfinal | |
| 2004 | Montreal over Boston | Preliminary |
| 2009 | Washington over New York** | Preliminary |
| 2010 | Montreal over Washington | Preliminary |
| Philadelphia over Boston | Quarterfinal | |
| 2011 | Tampa Bay over Pittsburgh | Preliminary |
| 2013 | Chicago over Detroit | Quarterfinal |
| 2014 | Los Angeles over San Jose | Preliminary |
| New York** over Pittsburgh | Quarterfinal | |
| 2015 | New York** over Washington | Quarterfinal |
| 2019 | San Jose over Vegas | Preliminary |
| 2021 | Montreal over Toronto | Preliminary |
| 2022 | New York** over Pittsburgh | Preliminary |
| 2023 | Florida over Boston | Preliminary |
* New York Islanders
** New York Rangers
^ Minnesota North Stars
^^ Minnesota Wild
In the 36 seasons since all playoff rounds were expanded to best-of-seven series in 1987, 30 teams have comeback from a 3-1 deficit to win their series. In the 18 postseasons since the 2004 NHL Lockout, however, only 12 teams (Washington 2009, Montreal 2010, Philadelphia 2010, Tampa Bay 2011, Chicago 2013, Los Angeles 2014, New York 2014, New York 2015, San Jose 2019, Montreal 2021, New York 2022, Florida 2023) have turned the trick. Breaking it down by round, such comebacks have happened only once in the Stanley Cup Final (Toronto 1942) and Semifinal (New Jersey 2000), and 7 times in the Quarterfinal (Detroit 1987, Washington 1988, Minnesota 2003, Philadelphia 2010, Chicago 2013, New York 2014, New York 2015), with the remaining 23 comebacks occurring during the Preliminary round.
Of the 32 teams that completed the comeback, six won the Stanley Cup (Toronto 1942, Edmonton 1990, Pittsburgh 1992, New Jersey 2000, Chicago 2013, Los Angeles 2014) and five more made it to the Final but failed to hoist the hardware (Vancouver 1994, Philadelphia 2010, New York 2014, Montreal 2021, Florida 2023).
Only one team has ever recovered from a 3-1 deficit twice in the same playoff (Minnesota 2003). Similarly, only one team has ever comeback down 3-1 and blown a 3-1 lead in the same postseason (Vancouver 2003).
The chart below lists all teams involved in such 3-1 series comebacks, showing the total number of series involving such circumstances and their overall win/loss record.
| Team | Series | Record |
| Washington |
7
|
2-5
|
| Pittsburgh | 6
|
2-4
|
| Detroit |
5
|
2-3
|
| New York** |
4
|
3-1
|
| Vancouver | 4
|
3-1
|
| Montreal |
3
|
3-0
|
| Edmonton |
3
|
2-1
|
| St. Louis |
3
|
2-1
|
| Philadelphia | 3
|
1-2
|
| Toronto | 3
|
1-2
|
| Boston | 3
|
0-3
|
| Los Angeles |
2
|
2-0
|
| Minnesota^^ |
2
|
2-0
|
| New York* |
2
|
2-0
|
| San Jose | 2
|
1-1
|
| Colorado |
2
|
0-2
|
| Winnipeg | 2
|
0-2
|
| Chicago |
1
|
1-0
|
| Florida |
1
|
1-0
|
| New Jersey |
1
|
1-0
|
| Tampa Bay |
1
|
1-0
|
| Arizona |
1
|
0-1
|
| Calgary |
1
|
0-1
|
| Minnesota^ |
1
|
0-1
|
| Vegas |
1
|
0-1
|
* New York Islanders
** New York Rangers
^ Minnesota North Stars
^^ Minnesota Wild
Only Anaheim, Buffalo, Carolina, Columbus, Dallas, Nashville, Ottawa, Seattle and Winnipeg (formerly the Atlanta Thrashers) have never comeback from a 3-1 series deficit or blown a 3-1 series lead. Montreal, Vancouver and the New York Rangers lead all teams in comebacks trailing a series 3-1 with three series wins. Conversely, Washington has blown more 3-1 series leads than any other team, squandering five such series.
It's worth noting that in the 18 postseasons since the 2004 NHL Lockout, 16 teams have squandered a 3-1 series lead only to stave off elimination by winning Game 7. They are Carolina (2006, 2009), Vancouver (2007, 2011), Montreal (2008), Philadelphia (2008), San Jose (2011), Boston (2013, 2018), Los Angeles (2014), St. Louis (2016), Pittsburgh (2017), Dallas (2020), New York Islanders (2020) and Vegas (2020, 2021). Eight of these games were decided by one goal and six in overtime. In sum, with a 10% chance of recovery for teams trailing their series 3-1, it's statistically likely their season will soon end.
* See also NHL Playoff Comebacks Trailing 3-0.
* See also NHL Stanley Cup Playoff Game 7 History.
* See also NHL Stanley Cup Playoff First Round Upsets.
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