Tweaks to the playoff seeding system prior to the 1994 regular season awarded division winners with the top three spots in each conference, saving the final five positions for the next highest finishing teams. In the 21 seasons since, a division champion has made it to the Stanley Cup Finals every year but three (2012, 2014, 2015), winning 15 of 21 times.Realignment before the 2014 regular season reduced the number of divisions in each conference (from three to two) and introduced a revised playoff structure with teams playing through their division (with possible wildcard exceptions). For the purposes of this post we'll continue to ascribe conference standings to team seeding to test the importance of regular season finish on postseason performance, despite different playoff matchup methodology.
The chart below describes Cup Finals since 1994 by seeding and outcome.
| Year | Stanley Cup Final Matchup |
| 2015 | (4) Chicago over (3) Tampa Bay |
| 2014 | (6) Los Angeles over (5) New York* |
| 2013 | (1) Chicago over (4) Boston |
| 2012 | (8) Los Angeles over (6) New Jersey |
| 2011 | (3) Boston over (1) Vancouver |
| 2010 | (2) Chicago over (7) Philadelphia |
| 2009 | (4) Pittsburgh over (2) Detroit |
| 2008 | (1) Detroit over (2) Pittsburgh |
| 2007 | (2) Anaheim over (4) Ottawa |
| 2006 | (2) Carolina over (8) Edmonton |
| 2004 | (1) Tampa Bay over (6) Calgary |
| 2003 | (2) New Jersey over (7) Anaheim |
| 2002 | (1) Detroit over (3) Carolina |
| 2001 | (1) Colorado over (1) New Jersey |
| 2000 | (4) New Jersey over (2) Dallas |
| 1999 | (1) Dallas over (7) Buffalo |
| 1998 | (2) Detroit over (4) Washington |
| 1997 | (3) Detroit over (2) Philadelphia |
| 1996 | (2) Colorado over (4) Florida |
| 1995 | (5) New Jersey over (1) Detroit |
| 1994 | (1) New York* over (7) Vancouver |
* New York Rangers
The only non-division winners to hoist the Cup since the new seeding scenario are New Jersey (5th seed in 1995, 4th seed in 2000), Pittsburgh (4th seed in 2009), Los Angeles (8th seed in 2012, 6th seed in 2014) and Chicago (4th seed in 2015). Interestingly, New Jersey and Pittsburgh both fell short as division champions in the Stanley Cup Final (NJD 2001, PIT 2008), yet won as wildcards.
The Presidents' Trophy winner made the Stanley Cup Final eight times during this span (NYR 1994, DET 1995, DAL 1999, COL 2001, DET 2002, DET 2008, VAN 2011, CHI 2013), claiming the Cup every time but twice (DET 1995, VAN 2011). Amazingly, only once have the top seeded teams in each conference met in the Stanley Cup Final (2001).
At the other end of the spectrum, Cinderellas seeded 6th or worse have found themselves in the Stanley Cup Final nine times (VAN 1994, BUF 1999, ANA 2003, CGY 2004, EDM 2006, PHI 2010, NJD 2012, LAK 2012, LAK 2014). Only two have won (LAK 2012, LAK 2014) and only once has a Stanley Cup Final been an all-cinderella affair (2012) when the 8th seeded Kings defeating the 6th seeded Devils to become the first 8th seeded team to win a major North American professional sports championship.
It's worth noting that 6th to 8th seeded teams in the salary cap era are not quite the underdog they once were as playoffs clubs are more closely aligned in terms of regular season performance than ever before.
The chart below describes the regular season point differential for all playoff qualifiers and Stanley Cup finalists since 1994 by year.
| Year | Playoff Differential | Cup Final Differential | |
| 2015 |
16pts (113 - 97)
|
6pts (108 - 102)^
|
|
| 2014 |
26pts (117 - 91)
|
4pts (100 - 96)
|
|
| 2013* |
22pts (77 - 55)
|
15pts (77 - 62)
|
|
| 2012 |
19pts (111 - 92)
|
7pts (102 - 95)^
|
|
| 2011 |
24pts (117 - 93)
|
14pts (117 - 103)^
|
|
| 2010 |
33pts (121 - 88)
|
24pts (112 - 88)
|
|
| 2009 |
26pts (117 - 91)
|
13pts (112 - 99)^
|
|
| 2008 |
24pts (115 - 91)
|
13pts (115 - 102)
|
|
| 2007 |
21pts (113 - 92)
|
5pts (110 - 105)
|
|
| 2006 |
32pts (124 - 92)
|
17pts (112 - 95)
|
|
| 2004 |
18pts (109 - 91)
|
12pts (106 - 94)
|
|
| 2003 |
30pts (113 - 83)
|
13pts (108 - 95)
|
|
| 2002 |
29pts (116 - 87)
|
25pts (116 - 91)
|
|
| 2001 |
30pts (118 - 88)
|
7pts (118 - 111)
|
|
| 2000 |
29pts (114 - 85)
|
1pt (103 - 102)
|
|
| 1999 |
36pts (114 - 78)
|
23pts (114 - 91)
|
|
| 1998 |
31pts (109 - 78)
|
11pts (103 - 92)
|
|
| 1997 |
30pts (107 - 77)
|
9pts (103 - 94)^
|
|
| 1996 |
53pts (131 - 78)
|
12pts (104 - 92)
|
|
| 1995* |
28pts (70 - 42)
|
18pts (70 - 52)^
|
|
| 1994 |
30pts (112 - 82)
|
27pts (112 - 85)
|
|
| Avg |
28pts
|
13pts
|
* Abbreviated 48 game regular season due to lockout
^ Team with fewer regular season points won series
The chart shows that regular season point differentials between playoff qualifiers is narrowing. During the 82 game seasons from 1994 until the 2004 Lockout, 7 of 10 had at least a 30 point gap, compared to only 2 of the past 9 such seasons since. The largest spread during this span is 53 points (1996) and the smallest 16 points (2015), with a 21 season average of a 28 point differential. Interestingly, the last time there was a spread of less than 16 points was in 1965 when just four teams qualified for the postseason.
Similarly, the regular season point differential between Stanley Cup finalists is closing. Since 1994, only six Finals have boasted teams with a regular season point differential of 7 points or less, with three of those instances occurring over the past four years. The largest gap over the past 21 seasons is 27 points (1994) and the smallest is 1 point (2000), with an average of 13 points. Only 6 times during this span has a finalist with fewer regular season points than its opponent won the Cup (NJD 1995, DET 1997, PIT 2009, BOS 2011, LAK 2012, CHI 2015).
Cinderella teams tell an inspiring story but statistics show that clubs seeded 6th through 8th rarely qualify for the Final (9 of 42, 21% chance to qualify) and almost never go home a winner (2/42, 5% chance to win). That said, the narrowing regular season point differential between playoff qualifiers and Stanley Cup Final pairings could soon see more cinderella winners.
In short, unless you're the Devils, Penguins or unprecedented Kings, your best bet to win the Cup in the modern era comes with clinching your division (15 of 21 winners), earning more regular season points than your fellow finalist (15 of 21 winners), leading your conference (7 of 21 winners) and taking the Presidents' Trophy (6 of 21 winners).
That way, you'll have history on your side.
* See also NHL Playoff First Round Upsets.
* See also Presidents' Winners & Defending Cup Champions.
* See also NHL Presidents' Trophy Winners & Playoff Success.
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