2011 NHL Playoff Projections - 25 Games Played

With 30 percent of the regular season in the books, the 2011 NHL playoff picture is taking shape. Postseason projections are posited below.

Projected 2011 NHL Playoff Picture At 25 Games
EAST				WEST
Team	W	Pts	Pace	Team	W	Pts	Pace
1. WAS	17	36	1.44	1. DET	17	37	1.48
2. PHI	15	34	1.36	2. DAL	16	33	1.32
3. MTL	15	32	1.28	3. VAN	14	31	1.24
4. PIT	15	32	1.28	4. LAK	15	30	1.20
5. TBL	14	31	1.24	5. PHO	12	30	1.20
6. BOS	14	31	1.24	6. CLB	14	29	1.16
7. NYR	14	29	1.16	7. COL	13	29	1.16
8. ATL	13	29	1.16	8. NAS	12	29	1.16
9. CAR	11	25	1.00	9. SJS	12	28	1.12
10. OTT	11	23	0.92	10. STL	12	28	1.12
11. FLA	11	22	0.88	11. CHI	12	26	1.04
12. TOR	9	22	0.88	12. ANA	11	25	1.00
13. BUF	9	21	0.84	13. MIN	11	25	1.00
14. NJD	8	18	0.72	14. CGY	10	22	0.88
15. NYI	5	15	0.60	15. EDM	9	22	0.88

Though team standings so early in the season may seem insignificant, they provide an amazingly accurate measure of one's chances of making the playoffs. Last season, only 1 of 3 teams managing a 1.00 pace through 25 games made the postseason and none collecting less qualified.

Applying that standard to this season's data, three teams are skating on rather thin ice (CAR, ANA, MIN) and eight are already out (OTT, FLA, CGY, TOR, EDM, BUF, NJD, NYI).

The 1.16 points per game pace set by the pair of 8th place clubs suggests a 95 point cutoff to qualify for the 2011 NHL postseason. Using that math, the chart below presents the points and pace needed for the remainder of the season for existing outliers to skate beyond 82 games.

Points Needed In Final 57 Games
EAST			WEST
Team	Pts	Pace	Team	Pts	Pace
9. CAR	70	1.23	9. SJS	67	1.17
10. OTT	72	1.26	10. STL	67	1.17
11. FLA	73	1.28	11. CHI	69	1.21
12. TOR	73	1.28	12. ANA	70	1.23
13. BUF	74	1.30	13. MIN	70	1.23
14. NJD	77	1.35	14. CGY	73	1.28
15. NYI	80	1.40	15. EDM	73	1.28

Anything shy of a Penguins-esque pace for the Panthers, Flames, Leafs, and Oilers and their playoff dreams will be dashed for yet another year.
The hard truth of the holidays is the Islanders' postseason prospects are dead. The silver lining is GM Garth Snow should be in a position to select the Isles 5th top ten draft pick in six years. The dream never dies.