2011 NHL Playoff Projections - 41 Games Played

With half of the 2011 NHL regular season games played, playoff projections predicated on midpoint performance are presented below.

Projected 2011 NHL Playoff Picture At 41 Games
EAST				WEST
Team	W	Pts	Pace	Team	W	Pts	Pace
1. PHI	26	57	1.39	1. VAN	27	60	1.46
2. PIT	26	55	1.34	2. DET	26	57	1.39
3. TBL	24	53	1.29	3. DAL	24	52	1.27
4. WAS	23	52	1.27	4. NAS	22	50	1.22
5. BOS	22	51	1.24	5. LAK	23	47	1.15
6. NYR	23	49	1.20	6. MIN	21	47	1.15
7. MTL	22	47	1.15	7. SJS	21	47	1.15
8. ATL	20	46	1.12	8. COL	21	47	1.15
9. CAR	20	46	1.12	9. PHO	19	47	1.15
10. BUF	18	41	1.00	10. STL	20	46	1.12
11. FLA	19	40	0.98	11. CHI	21	45	1.10
12. TOR	17	38	0.93	12. ANA	20	44	1.07
13. OTT	16	38	0.93	13. CLB	20	43	1.05
14. NYI	13	33	0.80	14. CGY	18	39	0.95
15. NJD	10	22	0.54	15. EDM	13	33	0.80

Though anything may seem possible with 41 games to play, history tells us otherwise. Of those poised for the playoffs at last year's midpoint, only two from the East (NYR, ATL) and one from the West (CGY) missed at season's end. Put another way, 13 of 16 teams maintained their standing with only 3 of 14 outliers reversing their fortune (MTL, PHI, DET).

The chart below shows the points and pace required for current outliers to qualify based on projected cutoffs (East 92Pts, West 94Pts).

Points Needed In Final 41 Games
EAST			WEST
Team	Pts	Pace	Team	Pts	Pace
9. CAR	46	1.12	9. PHO	47	1.15
10. BUF	51	1.24	10. STL	48	1.17
11. FLA	52	1.27	11. CHI	49	1.20
12. TOR	54	1.32	12. ANA	50	1.22
13. OTT	54	1.32	13. CLB	51	1.24
14. NYI	59	1.44	14. CGY	55	1.34
15. NJD	70	1.71	15. EDM	61	1.49

Last year no team with a first half points pace of less than 1.00 made the cut suggesting that several (FLA, CGY, TOR, OTT, NYI, EDM, NJD) have already squandered their second season. But hey, don't write yourself off yet. Just try your best, try everything you can.
Stranger things have happened in the middle of the ride.