2011 NHL Playoff Projections - 20 Games To Play

With 62 games banked and 20 to play, the NHL playoff picture is taking shape. The chart below projects final standings based on the points-per-game pace to date.

Projected 2011 NHL Playoff Picture: 62 Game Pace
EAST				WEST
Team	W	Pts	Pace	Team	W	Pts	Pace
1. PHI	40	86	1.39	1. VAN	39	87	1.40
2. TBL	37	81	1.31	2. DET	38	82	1.32
3. BOS	36	79	1.27	3. SJS	35	76	1.22
4. PIT	36	78	1.26	4. PHO	33	75	1.21
5. WAS	32	74	1.19	5. LAK	35	74	1.19
6. MTL	32	71	1.14	6. MIN	33	72	1.16
7. NYR	32	68	1.10	7. CHI	33	72	1.16
8. BUF	30	67	1.08	8. DAL	33	72	1.16
9. CAR	29	67	1.08	9. NAS	31	70	1.13
10. TOR	27	62	1.00	10. CGY	31	70	1.13
11. ATL	25	61	0.98	11. ANA	32	69	1.11
12. FLA	26	59	0.95	12. CLB	31	69	1.11
13. NJD	27	58	0.93	13. STL	28	65	1.05
14. NYI	23	54	0.87	14. COL	26	59	0.95
15. OTT	21	51	0.82	15. EDM	20	48	0.77

If teams maintain their 62 game pace, the playoff points cutoff will be 89 (East) and 95 (West), nearly identical to last year's 88 and 95. An uptick in production, however, is needed for outliers to salvage their season.

Points Needed In Final 20 Games
EAST			WEST
Team	Pts	Pace	Team	Pts	Pace
9. CAR	22	1.10	9. NAS	25	1.25
10. TOR	27	1.35	10. CGY	25	1.25
11. ATL	28	1.40	11. ANA	26	1.30
12. FLA	30	1.50	12. CLB	26	1.30
13. NJD	31	1.55	13. STL	30	1.50
14. NYI	35	1.75	14. COL	36	1.80
15. OTT	38	1.90	15. EDM	47	2.35

While most have enjoyed relatively consistent production throughout the season, some have deviated drastically during the past 21 games. Most notably, the New Jersey Devils posted a 0.54 pace during the front 41, a marker they've more than tripled during the 21 games since.

Points Collected In Past 21 Games
EAST			WEST
Team	Pts	Pace	Team	Pts	Pace
NJD	36	1.71	CGY	31	1.48
PHI	29	1.38	SJS	29	1.38
TBL	28	1.33	PHO	28	1.33
BOS	27	1.28	VAN	27	1.28
BUF	26	1.24	LAK	27	1.28
MTL	24	1.14	CHI	27	1.28
TOR	24	1.14	CLB	26	1.24
PIT	23	1.09	DET	25	1.19
CAR	22	1.05	ANA	25	1.19
WAS	22	1.05	MIN	25	1.19
NYI	21	1.00	DAL	20	0.95
NYR	19	0.90	NAS	20	0.95
FLA	19	0.90	STL	19	0.90
ATL	15	0.71	EDM	15	0.71
OTT	13	0.62	COL	12	0.57

Understanding that past behavior is a strong indicator of future performance, the question is how far back do we look to predict the future. The chart below posits final standings extrapolating the points pace for the past 21 games over the remainder of the regular season.
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Projected 2011 NHL Playoff Picture: 21 Game Pace
EAST				WEST
Team	W	Pts	Pace	Team	W	Pts	Pace
1. PHI	53	114	1.38	1. VAN	50	113	1.28
2. TBL	49	108	1.33	2. DET	49	106	1.19
3. BOS	49	105	1.28	3. SJS	48	104	1.38
4. PIT	45	100	1.09	4. PHO	46	102	1.33
5. WAS	40	95	1.04	5. LAK	46	100	1.28
6. MTL	41	94	1.14	6. CGY	43	100	1.48
7. NJD	43	92	1.71	7. CHI	44	98	1.28
8. BUF	39	92	1.24	8. MIN	43	96	1.19
9. CAR	37	88	1.05	9. CLB	41	94	1.24
10. NYR	40	86	1.00	10. ANA	43	93	1.19
11. TOR	36	85	1.14	11. DAL	41	91	0.95
12. FLA	32	77	0.90	12. NAS	39	89	0.95
13. ATL	29	75	0.71	13. STL	36	83	0.90
14. NYI	32	74	0.90	14. COL	30	70	0.71
15. OTT	25	63	0.62	15. EDM	26	62	0.57

Interestingly, the two measures yield identical placements for the top five on each side. The 21 game pace, however, has the New Jersey Devils beating out the New York Rangers and the Calgary Flames displacing the Dallas Stars. Time will tell which pace prevails over the final 20 games.