2012 NHL Playoff Projections - 25 Games Played

With all teams having completed 25 games, equaling roughly 30 percent of the 82 game regular season schedule, the 2012 NHL playoff picture is taking shape. Preliminary postseason projections are posited below.

Projected 2011 NHL Playoff Picture At 25 Games
EAST				WEST
Team	W	Pts	Pace	Team	W	Pts	Pace
1. BOS	17	35	1.40	1. DET	16	33	1.32
2. NYR	15	34	1.36	2. MIN	15	33	1.32
3. PHI	15	33	1.32	3. DAL	15	31	1.24
4. PIT	14	32	1.28	4. SJS	15	31	1.24
5. TOR	14	30	1.20	5. STL	14	31	1.24
6. FLA	13	30	1.20	6. CHI	14	31	1.24
7. WAS	13	27	1.08	7. LAK	13	30	1.20
8. BUF	13	27	1.08	8. VAN	14	29	1.16
9. OTT	12	26	1.04	9. PHO	13	29	1.16
10. NJD	12	25	1.00	10. NAS	12	28	1.12
11. TBL	11	24	0.96	11. EDM	12	27	1.08
12. MTL	10	24	0.96	12. CGY	11	24	0.96
13. WPG	10	24	0.96	13. COL	11	23	0.92
14. NYI	9	23	0.92	14. ANA	7	19	0.76
15. CAR	8	20	0.80	15. CLB	7	17	0.68

Arguably insignificant with 70 percent of the schedule to play, standings at the 25 game mark have proven a reliable measure for postseason play. Specifically, in each of the past two seasons only four outliers at the 25 game mark have made the playoffs of which only one team from either year (Buffalo 2011) qualified with a points pace of less than 1.00.

Assuming a 95 point cutoff to qualify for the 2012 NHL postseason, though last year's actuals were 93 points in the East and 97 points for the West, the chart below presents the points and pace needed for the remainder of the season for existing outliers to skate beyond 82 games.

Points Needed In Final 57 Games
EAST			WEST
Team	Pts	Pace	Team	Pts	Pace
9. OTT	69	1.21	9. PHO	66	1.15
10. NJD	70	1.23	10. NAS	67	1.17
11. TBL	71	1.25	11. EDM	68	1.19
12. MTL	71	1.25	12. CGY	71	1.25
13. WPG	71	1.25	13. COL	72	1.27
14. NYI	72	1.27	14. ANA	76	1.32
15. CAR	75	1.32	15. CLB	78	1.36

The takeaway is the Lightning, Canadiens, Jets, Flames, Islanders and Avalanche are in a tough spot, while the Hurricanes, Ducks and Blue Jackets are all but done barring Perry-esque Hart trophy heroics.

Dreams never die but history doesn't lie.