Monday, January 16, 2012

2012 NHL Playoff Projections - 41 Games Played

With all teams having completed precisely one-half of the 2012 NHL 82 game regular season, playoff projections predicated on midpoint performance are posited below.













Projected 2012 NHL Playoff Picture At 41 Games
EASTWEST
TeamW Pts Pace TeamW Pts Pace
1. NYR
27
58
1.41
1. SJS
25
55
1.34
2. BOS
28
57
1.39
2. DET
26
53
1.29
3. PHI
25
54
1.32
3. VAN
25
53
1.29
4. NJD
23
48
1.17
4. STL
24
53
1.29
5. FLA
20
48
1.17
5. CHI
24
52
1.27
6. TOR
21
47
1.15
6. NAS
22
48
1.17
7. OTT
21
47
1.15
7. MIN
21
48
1.17
8. WAS
22
46
1.12
8. DAL
23
47
1.15
9. PIT
20
46
1.12
9. LAK
20
47
1.15
10. WPG
20
45
1.10
10. COL
22
45
1.10
11. BUF
18
41
1.00
11. PHO
19
43
1.05
12. MTL
16
39
0.95
12. CGY
18
41
1.00
13. TBL
17
38
0.93
13. EDM
16
35
0.85
14. NYI
15
36
0.88
14. ANA
13
32
0.78
15. CAR
13
33
0.80
15. CLB
11
27
0.66


Though anything may seem possible with 41 games to play, history tells us otherwise. Of those poised for the playoffs at last year's midpoint only one from the East (ATL) and three from the West (COL, DAL, MIN) missed at season's end. Put another way, 12 of 16 teams maintained their standing with only 4 of 14 outliers reversing their fortune (ANA, BUF, CHI, PHO). None advanced beyond the first round of the playoffs.

The chart below shows the points and pace required for current outliers to qualify based on projected cutoffs (East 92Pts, West 94Pts).








Points Needed In Final 41 Games

EAST

WEST
Team
Pts
Pace
Team
Pts
Pace
9. PIT
46
1.12
9. LAK
47
1.15
10. WPG
47
1.15
10. COL
49
1.19
11. BUF
51
1.24
11. PHO
51
1.24
12. MTL
53
1.29
12. CGY
53
1.29
13. TBL
54
1.32
13. EDM
59
1.44
14. NYI
56
1.36
14. ANA
62
1.51
15. CAR
59
1.44
15. CLB
67
1.63

Last year no team with a first half points pace of less than 1.00 made the cut suggesting that several (MTL, TBL, NYI, EDM, CAR, ANA, CLB) clubs have already squandered their shot at the second season. But hey, don't write yourself off yet. Just try your best, try everything you can.
Stranger things have happened in the middle of the ride.
at

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