Wednesday, March 21, 2012

2012 NHL Playoff Projections - 10 Games To Play

With 72 games banked and 10 to play, the NHL playoff picture is all but set. The chart below projects final standings based on the points-per-game pace to date.
Projected 2012 NHL Playoff Picture: 72 Game Pace
EASTWEST
TeamW Pts Pace TeamW Pts Pace
1. NYR
45
97
1.35
1. STL
45
98
1.36
2. BOS
42
87
1.21
2. VAN
43
94
1.30
3. FLA
36
85
1.18
3. DAL
39
83
1.15
4. PIT
45
96
1.33
4. DET
44
92
1.28
5. PHI
42
92
1.28
5. NAS
42
92
1.28
6. NJD
41
87
1.21
6. CHI
39
86
1.19
7. OTT
37
84
1.17
7. SJS
36
82
1.14
8. WAS
36
78
1.08
8. LAK
35
82
1.14
9. WPG
34
76
1.05
9. COL
38
81
1.12
10. BUF
33
76
1.05
10. PHO
35
81
1.12
11. TOR
32
72
1.00
11. CGY
34
80
1.11
12. TBL
32
71
0.99
12. ANA
30
71
0.99
13. CAR
28
71
0.99
13. MIN
30
70
0.97
14. NYI
29
69
0.96
14. EDM
28
64
0.89
15. MTL
28
68
0.94
15. CLB
23
53
0.74

If teams maintain their 72 game pace the playoff points cutoff will be 89 (East) and 93 (West), a four point downturn from last year's 93 and 97, respectively. Substituting the 72 game pace for that of the past 10 games paints a slightly different playoff picture, as shown below.

Projected 2012 NHL Playoff Picture: 10 Game Pace
EASTWEST
TeamW Pts Pace TeamW Pts Pace
1. PIT
54
115
1.40
1. STL
52
113
1.38
2. FLA
42
98
1.19
2. VAN
46
102
1.24
3. OTT
42
97
1.18
3. DAL
46
98
1.19
4. PHI
50
109
1.33
4. NAS
48
105
1.28
5. NYR
49
106
1.29
5. DET
47
99
1.21
6. NJD
47
100
1.22
6. CHI
45
99
1.21
7. BOS
46
95
1.16
7. LAK
42
96
1.17
8. BUF
39
90
1.10
8. COL
45
95
1.16
9. WAS
41
89
1.08
9. CGY
40
93
1.13
10. WPG
39
87
1.06
10. SJS
39
91
1.11
11. CAR
33
83
1.01
11. PHO
38
89
1.08
12. TBL
37
82
1.00
12. ANA
33
78
0.95
13. TOR
35
79
0.96
13. MIN
32
75
0.91
14. MTL
32
78
0.95
14. EDM
31
72
0.88
15. NYI
32
78
0.95
15. CLB
28
63
0.77

The 10 game pace projections have Pittsburgh stealing the East's top spot from New York, Ottawa beating Boston for the Northeast Division title, and Buffalo bouncing Washington from postseason play. In the West, the top three seeds remain the same with Nashville displacing Detroit for home ice and Colorado taking the final playoff spot from San Jose.

Time will tell which pace prevails. Either way, Florida is poised to snap their league-leading playoff drought of 10 seasons, a list Toronto will top if they miss again this spring for the 7th consecutive season.

A harsh reality for the alleged hockey capital of the world.
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