Saturday, March 3, 2012

2012 NHL Playoff Projections - 20 Games To Play

With 62 games banked and 20 to play, the NHL playoff picture is taking shape. The chart below projects final standings based on the points-per-game pace to date.























































































































































































































































































































Projected 2011 NHL Playoff Picture: 62 Game Pace
EASTWEST
TeamW Pts Pace TeamW Pts Pace
1. NYR
41
88
1.42
1. VAN
40
86
1.39
2. BOS
38
79
1.27
2. DET
41
85
1.37
3. FLA
30
72
1.16
3. SJS
33
73
1.18
4. PIT
36
77
1.24
4. STL
38
83
1.34
5. PHI
34
75
1.21
5. NAS
36
79
1.27
6. NJD
35
74
1.19
6. CHI
33
73
1.18
7. OTT
32
72
1.16
7. PHO
32
73
1.18
8. WAS
31
67
1.08
8. DAL
32
68
1.10
9. TOR
29
65
1.05
9. CGY
28
67
1.08
10. WPG
29
65
1.05
10. COL
31
66
1.06
11. TBL
28
62
1.00
11. LAK
27
66
1.06
12. BUF
27
62
1.00
12. MIN
28
65
1.05
13. NYI
26
60
0.97
13. ANA
27
64
1.03
14. CAR
23
59
0.95
14. EDM
25
56
0.90
15. MTL
24
58
0.93
15. CLB
18
43
0.69



If teams maintain their 62 game pace, the playoff points cutoff will be 89 (East) and 90 (West), a slight dip from last year's 93 and 97. An uptick in production, however, is needed for outliers to salvage their season.



















































































































































Points Needed In Final 20 Games



EAST

WEST
Team
Pts
Pace
Team
Pts
Pace
9. TOR
24
1.20
9. CGY
23
1.15
10. WPG
24
1.20
10. COL
24
1.20
11. TBL
27
1.35
11. LAK
24
1.20
12. BUF
27
1.35
12. MIN
25
1.25
13. NYI
29
1.45
13. ANA
26
1.30
14. CAR
30
1.50
14. EDM
34
1.70
15. MTL
31
1.55
15. CLB
47
2.35


While most have enjoyed relatively consistent production thus far this season, some have deviated drastically during the past 21 games. Most notably Anaheim has doubled their pace posting .74 more points per game during the past 21 games than they did in their first 41 games. On the other hand, Pacific Division sibling San Jose has fallen further than any other team collecting .48 fewer points per game than the first half.



































































































































































































































































Points Collected In Past 21 Games



EAST

WEST
Team
Pts
Pace
Team
Pts
Pace
PIT
31
1.48
VAN
33
1.57
NYR
30
1.43
DET
32
1.52
NJD
26
1.24
ANA
32
1.52
CAR
26
1.24
NAS
31
1.48
OTT
25
1.19
STL
30
1.43
FLA
24
1.14
PHO
30
1.43
TBL
24
1.14
CGY
26
1.24
NYI
24
1.14
CHI
21
1.00
BOS
22
1.05
DAL
21
1.00
PHI
21
1.00
COL
21
1.00
WAS
21
1.00
EDM
21
1.00
BUF
21
1.00
LAK
19
0.90
WPG
20
0.95
SJS
18
0.86
MTL
19
0.90
MIN
17
0.81
TOR
18
0.86
CLB
16
0.76



Understanding past behavior is a strong indicator of future performance, the question is how far back does one look to prepare predictions. The chart below posits final standings extrapolating the points pace for the past 21 games over the remainder of the regular season.

-
------



























































































































































































































































































































Projected 2011 NHL Playoff Picture: 21 Game Pace
EASTWEST
TeamW Pts Pace TeamW Pts Pace
1. NYR
55
117
1.43
1. VAN
55
117
1.43
2. BOS
48
100
1.22
2. DET
56
115
1.40
3. FLA
40
95
1.16
3. PHO
45
102
1.24
4. PIT
52
107
1.30
4. STL
52
112
1.36
5. NJD
47
99
1.20
5. NAS
50
109
1.33
6. OTT
43
96
1.17
6. ANA
41
94
1.15
7. PHI
43
95
1.16
7. CHI
42
93
1.13
8. WAS
40
87
1.06
8. CGY
38
92
1.12
9. TBL
39
85
1.03
9. SJS
41
90
1.10
10. WPG
38
84
1.02
10. DAL
41
88
1.07
11. CAR
33
84
1.02
11. COL
40
86
1.05
12. NYI
37
83
1.01
12. LAK
34
84
1.02
13. TOR
37
82
1.00
13. MIN
35
81
0.99
14. BUF
36
82
1.00
14. EDM
34
76
0.93
15. MTL
32
76
0.93
15. CLB
25
58
0.71






Despite differences in points pace between the 62 and 21 game spans, the same East teams qualify under either scenario with the Flyers finishing below the Senators and Devils applying the 21 game pace. In the West, however, the 62 game pace has the Sharks and
Stars qualifying whereas the 21 game pace shows the Flames and Ducks stealing their spots.
In short, it's getting real in the playoff points race. Time will tell which teams and pace prevail during the final 20 game postseason push.

No comments:

Post a Comment