2012 NHL Playoff Projections - 20 Games To Play

With 62 games banked and 20 to play, the NHL playoff picture is taking shape. The chart below projects final standings based on the points-per-game pace to date.

Projected 2011 NHL Playoff Picture: 62 Game Pace
EAST				WEST
Team	W	Pts	Pace	Team	W	Pts	Pace
1. NYR	41	88	1.42	1. VAN	40	86	1.39
2. BOS	38	79	1.27	2. DET	41	85	1.37
3. FLA	30	72	1.16	3. SJS	33	73	1.18
4. PIT	36	77	1.24	4. STL	38	83	1.34
5. PHI	34	75	1.21	5. NAS	36	79	1.27
6. NJD	35	74	1.19	6. CHI	33	73	1.18
7. OTT	32	72	1.16	7. PHO	32	73	1.18
8. WAS	31	67	1.08	8. DAL	32	68	1.10
9. TOR	29	65	1.05	9. CGY	28	67	1.08
10. WPG	29	65	1.05	10. COL	31	66	1.06
11. TBL	28	62	1.00	11. LAK	27	66	1.06
12. BUF	27	62	1.00	12. MIN	28	65	1.05
13. NYI	26	60	0.97	13. ANA	27	64	1.03
14. CAR	23	59	0.95	14. EDM	25	56	0.90
15. MTL	24	58	0.93	15. CLB	18	43	0.69

If teams maintain their 62 game pace, the playoff points cutoff will be 89 (East) and 90 (West), a slight dip from last year's 93 and 97. An uptick in production, however, is needed for outliers to salvage their season.

Points Needed In Final 20 Games
EAST			WEST
Team	Pts	Pace	Team	Pts	Pace
9. TOR	24	1.20	9. CGY	23	1.15
10. WPG	24	1.20	10. COL	24	1.20
11. TBL	27	1.35	11. LAK	24	1.20
12. BUF	27	1.35	12. MIN	25	1.25
13. NYI	29	1.45	13. ANA	26	1.30
14. CAR	30	1.50	14. EDM	34	1.70
15. MTL	31	1.55	15. CLB	47	2.35

While most have enjoyed relatively consistent production thus far this season, some have deviated drastically during the past 21 games. Most notably Anaheim has doubled their pace posting .74 more points per game during the past 21 games than they did in their first 41 games. On the other hand, Pacific Division sibling San Jose has fallen further than any other team collecting .48 fewer points per game than the first half.

Points Collected In Past 21 Games
EAST			WEST
Team	Pts	Pace	Team	Pts	Pace
PIT	31	1.48	VAN	33	1.57
NYR	30	1.43	DET	32	1.52
NJD	26	1.24	ANA	32	1.52
CAR	26	1.24	NAS	31	1.48
OTT	25	1.19	STL	30	1.43
FLA	24	1.14	PHO	30	1.43
TBL	24	1.14	CGY	26	1.24
NYI	24	1.14	CHI	21	1.00
BOS	22	1.05	DAL	21	1.00
PHI	21	1.00	COL	21	1.00
WAS	21	1.00	EDM	21	1.00
BUF	21	1.00	LAK	19	0.90
WPG	20	0.95	SJS	18	0.86
MTL	19	0.90	MIN	17	0.81
TOR	18	0.86	CLB	16	0.76

Understanding past behavior is a strong indicator of future performance, the question is how far back does one look to prepare predictions. The chart below posits final standings extrapolating the points pace for the past 21 games over the remainder of the regular season.

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Projected 2011 NHL Playoff Picture: 21 Game Pace
EAST				WEST
Team	W	Pts	Pace	Team	W	Pts	Pace
1. NYR	55	117	1.43	1. VAN	55	117	1.43
2. BOS	48	100	1.22	2. DET	56	115	1.40
3. FLA	40	95	1.16	3. PHO	45	102	1.24
4. PIT	52	107	1.30	4. STL	52	112	1.36
5. NJD	47	99	1.20	5. NAS	50	109	1.33
6. OTT	43	96	1.17	6. ANA	41	94	1.15
7. PHI	43	95	1.16	7. CHI	42	93	1.13
8. WAS	40	87	1.06	8. CGY	38	92	1.12
9. TBL	39	85	1.03	9. SJS	41	90	1.10
10. WPG	38	84	1.02	10. DAL	41	88	1.07
11. CAR	33	84	1.02	11. COL	40	86	1.05
12. NYI	37	83	1.01	12. LAK	34	84	1.02
13. TOR	37	82	1.00	13. MIN	35	81	0.99
14. BUF	36	82	1.00	14. EDM	34	76	0.93
15. MTL	32	76	0.93	15. CLB	25	58	0.71

Despite differences in points pace between the 62 and 21 game spans, the same East teams qualify under either scenario with the Flyers finishing below the Senators and Devils applying the 21 game pace. In the West, however, the 62 game pace has the Sharks and Stars qualifying whereas the 21 game pace shows the Flames and Ducks stealing their spots.

In short, it's getting real in the playoff points race. Time will tell which teams and pace prevail during the final 20 game postseason push.