2013 NHL Playoff Projections - 20 Games To Play

With 28 games banked in this lockout-shortened season and only 20 to play, the NHL playoff picture is taking shape. The chart below projects final standings based on the points-per-game pace to date.

Projected 2013 NHL Playoff Picture: 28 Game Pace
EAST				WEST
Team	W	Pts	Pace	Team	W	Pts	Pace
1. MTL	19	42	1.50	1. CHI	23	49	1.75
2. PIT	20	40	1.43	2. ANA	21	46	1.64
3. CAR	15	32	1.14	3. MIN	16	34	1.21
4. BOS	19	41	1.46	4. LAK	16	34	1.21
5. OTT	14	34	1.21	5. STL	16	34	1.21
6. WPG	15	32	1.14	6. VAN	13	32	1.14
7. NJD	13	32	1.14	7. DET	13	31	1.11
8. TOR	15	31	1.11	8. PHO	13	30	1.07
9. NYR	14	30	1.07	9. SJS	12	30	1.07
10. NYI	13	29	1.03	10. DAL	13	29	1.03
11. TBL	12	25	0.89	11. NAS	11	28	1.00
12. WAS	12	25	0.89	12. EDM	11	28	1.00
13. PHI	12	25	0.89	13. CGY	11	26	0.93
14. BUF	10	24	0.86	14. CLB	10	26	0.93
15. FLA	7	20	0.80	15. COL	10	24	0.86

If teams maintain their 28 game pace, the playoff points cutoff will be 53 (East) and 51 (West), with the East threshold being higher than that of the West for the first time in four years. An uptick in production, however, is needed for outliers to salvage their season.

Points Needed In Final 20 Games
EAST			WEST
Team	Pts	Pace	Team	Pts	Pace
9. NYR	23	1.15	9. SJS	21	1.05
10. NYI	24	1.20	10. DAL	22	1.10
11. TBL	28	1.40	11. NAS	23	1.15
12. WAS	28	1.40	12. EDM	23	1.15
13. PHI	28	1.40	13. CGY	25	1.25
14. BUF	29	1.45	14. CLB	25	1.25
15. FLA	33	1.65	15. COL	27	1.35

While most have enjoyed relatively consistent production thus far this season, some have deviated drastically during the past 10 games. Most notably Columbus and Winnipeg have seen a significant uptick in their points per game pace of +.47 and +.36, respectively. On the other hand, Boston and Vancouver have fallen further than any other team over the past 10 games collecting -.36 and -.34 fewer points per game, respectively, than during the first half of the season.

Points Collected In Past 10 Games
EAST			WEST
Team	Pts	Pace	Team	Pts	Pace
MTL	16	1.60	CHI	16	1.60
PIT	16	1.60	ANA	14	1.40
WPG	15	1.50	MIN	14	1.40
CAR	13	1.30	CLB	14	1.40
OTT	12	1.20	STL	12	1.20
NYR	12	1.20	LAK	12	1.20
NYI	12	1.20	DET	12	1.20
BOS	11	1.10	PHO	11	1.10
BUF	11	1.10	DAL	10	1.00
WAS	10	1.00	SJS	9	0.90
TOR	9	0.90	VAN	8	0.80
NJD	8	0.80	EDM	8	0.80
PHI	8	0.80	CGY	8	0.80
TBL	6	0.60	NAS	7	0.70
FLA	6	0.60	COL	7	0.70

Understanding past behavior is a strong indicator of future performance, the question is how far back does one look to prepare predictions. The chart below posits final standings extrapolating the points pace for the past 10 games over the remainder of the regular season.

Projected 2013 NHL Playoff Picture: 10 Game Pace
EAST				WEST
Team	W	Pts	Pace	Team	W	Pts	Pace
1. MTL	33	74	1.54	1. CHI	39	81	1.69
2. PIT	36	72	1.50	2. ANA	35	74	1.54
3. WPG	29	62	1.29	3. MIN	30	62	1.29
4. BOS	29	63	1.31	4. LAK	28	58	1.21
5. CAR	27	58	1.21	5. STL	28	58	1.21
6. OTT	22	58	1.21	6. DET	23	55	1.14
7. NYR	26	54	1.12	7. CLB	20	54	1.12
8. NYI	23	53	1.10	8. PHO	23	52	1.08
9. TOR	23	49	1.02	9. DAL	21	49	1.02
10. NJD	19	48	1.00	10. VAN	19	48	1.00
11. BUF	18	46	0.96	11. SJS	18	48	1.00
12. WAS	22	45	0.94	12. EDM	19	44	0.92
13. PHI	20	41	0.85	13. NAS	17	42	0.87
14. TBL	18	37	0.77	14. CGY	19	42	0.87
15. FLA	11	32	0.67	15. COL	16	38	0.79

In the East, the 28 game points pace the Devils and Leafs edge the Rangers and Islanders, however, the 10 game points pace flips this equation with the Rangers and Islanders displacing the Devils and Leafs. In the West, the only difference in terms of playoff qualification involves the Canucks and Blue Jackets, the former qualifying applying the 28 game pace and the latter stealing a spot using the 10 game pace. In short, it's getting real in the playoff points race. Time will tell which teams and pace prevail during the final 20 game postseason push.